Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Is Strike Rate Important?

Had a good day today traded 6 races all profitable for a total profit of £85. Therefore I had a strike rate of 100% a perfect day. The reason I ask the question about strike rate is that the answer has to be no because strike rate is not important, it is that you make a profit in the long run e.g. you could lose 99 races then win on one that covers all those losses and still makes a profit alternatively you could win on 99 races then lose on one race that wipes out all of your profits and more.

However psychologically it feels better to have a fairly high strike rate so you frequently get the feedback that you are doing well. Confidence as a trader is very important and when it goes it can be very difficult to stay profitable and then keep your discipline.

Currently my strike rate is about 75%. Knowing this may help me to deal with my losing races. If I can expect to have a losing race about one in every 4 then hopefully I will be able to take the losing races and just move on confident in the fact that losing races are just part of the trading process. As long as I am profitable then losing races shouldn't matter.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Lay the Odds On

Returned to trading at the weekend. Had a nice result at the weekend on the Milan Derby. Thanks to BBC3 the game was on the box so I watched the game. Although Inter were 2-0 up at half time I fancied that AC could get at least one goal. Inter were trading at 1.15 ish at half time so I thought it was a good value call to lay Inter with the small downside but fairly big upside. To be honest the game was very open and it could easily have been Inter that got the next goal but about halfway through the half AC obligied with a goal and as you can see I was quids in. So yet again my football trading/betting has come good.

I have also traded a few horse races since last weeks disaster. I have made a little bit but I am still not sure I am cut out for pre-race trading just because i find it so difficult to deal with any losing races/trades. As much as I look at the evidence that just take a loss and move on it affects my trading nearly every time. I am thinking that it might be time to concentrate on other sports and give the nags a miss. I would hate to do this as there is so much potential with these markets but I am not sure I have that much potential to exploit these markets.

Monday, February 9, 2009


Things were going so well. In reading my previous entries I could see myself heading for a big fall. Well I got that wrong it was 2 big falls to be exact. It all began so well on Friday I traded the first race so well that I made my biggest profit for ages £64 greened up. I think that I suddenly thought that I was some big time trader and could just trade a race and make huge profits. I had that dangerous feeling of being invincible. The next race I traded I was in a small losing position before the off (about £10). For some reason (greed probably no definately) I decided not to red up before the off and put up a back bet to make a small profit. I then watched the race and the fav that I had layed was looking good and my bet had not been taken. So I decided to close my position. As soon as I had closed the position the favourite fell at the next fence. I briefly thought about what might have been and the fact that I could have won over £750 if I had let my lay run. Then to my horror I looked at the screen to see a big red £750 on all the remaining horses in the race. I stared in disbelief at first thinking that my software was playing up or I had gone completely mad. Then I realised what had happened. When I had closed my position I had used the stake button not the close position button. So I had left in my initial back bet of £750 that somebody with fast pictures quickly hovered up. I swore quite a lot at this point and switched off the computer (or something like that!)

By the next day I had regained my composure and thought I would carefully trade a few races. So in the first race I put a £250 back trade in just before the off of a race. I got briefly distracted before the off and wasn't watching the TV pictures then just as the race was about to start I went to close out my position and the horse had shot out from about 5.5 to 1000 before the off! It appears that the horse didn't want to race. So in less than 24 hours £1000 had disappeared from my account.

I have decided to take at least a week off from trading whilst I think what to do. Part of me wants to knock trading on the head with this double blow but the other part of me tells me I can do this. I only have to look back to last month and my recent trading to see that it is possible. I think I have fallen into the classic trap of being over-confident when things were going well and thinking I only had to put on a trade to make money. I became careless and got what I deserved because if it hadn't happened this week it would have been next week or the week after that because if you keep on taking chances you will get caught. Anyway I will give myself more time to think and make a decision by next week.

Monday, February 2, 2009

Good Break

When things are going for you and you feel confident good things just keep happening for you. Take yesterday for example. I was up fairly early on Sunday so I thought I would trade the Aussie Tennis final before the start. I was about to close before the start for a £2 green figure. Just before I did they announced that Federer would serve first. With my increased confidence I thought he is expected to win his service game so there would probably be little movement in his odds if he did but if he lost his serve! So I let the trade go in-running I think he won the first point and his price shortened a little but then he lost the next 4 and his price jumped out from 1.63 at the start to 1.93 after one game. I thought how lucky I had been and took my profit of over £100 for a few minutes work. I then stayed away from the game for the rest of the excellent match as I had lots to do at home and was reluctant to lose this good return.

However this game gave a great example of why tennis trading has huge potential. The graph below shows Federer's price in the first set. As you can see many huge price movements which are good if you call them correctly. The rest of the game continued to swing from one player to the next. I am sure that some traders made thousands from the momentum swings between these evenly matched players. as for me I probably committed a bit too much to my trade and it worked out but again this is another sport that looks great for trading.

My Horse Racing trading also continued on its recent upturn with 10 races traded for just over £100 profit. I feel really positive about this change because unlike the tennis trade it feels like my trading has improved whereas the tennis trade might just have been lucky.

Looks like these were timely profits as the outlook for trading this week looks bleak. Oh well just have to concentrate on building snowmen this week rather than my bank.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Jan Review

So here are the figures for Jan 09(I also made about £10 from the Aussie markets). A month that has got better the longer it has gone on. The last week has been excellent with nearly half of the profit coming in that period. I am really happy to have managed a profit in this month as January is so tough with the lack of racing, especially if you work as well. I am pleased that I have been able to spot opportunities in markets apart from Horse Racing, very useful at this time of year. American Football was a revelation to me and although I only made a small profit after quite a big loss the potential is huge. Although it is a shame I have to wait until next season to start(apart from tonight).

In the last week my Horse Racing trading appears to have moved to a new more confident and profitable level. I just hope that this can continue because their is nothing better for improving your discipline then being in an all green position at the off.

Now I have increased my bank to over £1000 I intend to start paying 50% of any future profits out of my account. I think it would be wise to grow my bank slowly and not look to commit too much to the markets because there is a fine line between confidence and over confidence.